Oct 16 2008
Pilotless Cadence and the wayward direction of EDA
The latest changes at Cadence (Fister’s departure along with his gang of VPs) seems to have surprised many, but to most of the people in the design community it was no big shock. It is just the current state of volatility in a correcting industry that may not survive the correction. Unlike the stock market and the big investment firms, the government is not planning to use tax dollars to shore up a small boutique industry.
The sector has been self-victimized by the same sort “creative” accounting practices that plagued the dot.bomb craze and the current energy/real estate debacles along with an overall lack of cohesion for a common purpose. This has resulted in the EDA sector having difficulty justifying making growth, realistic booking goals, a consistent definition of what industries make up the segment and the admission that the cost of development of electronic products (the end customer marketplace) has resulted in a dwindling number of customers that can afford their products. Cadence being one of the bigger players in the field and promoting the house of cards, is just having an implosion at the leading edge.
What is interesting about the industry and the current situation at Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor and Magma is that the technology they have is actually quite sound and innovative. To make a very gross high level generalization – Cadence and Magma are having problems with the financial community due to validation and forecast of booking and long term revenue based on not showing the global reduction in design starts, Synopsys and Mentor are getting beat up in the market because they are projecting conservative verifiable estimates which shows slow/no growth in a declining economy. Translation – if you push the numbers, they street dumps you, if you play the numbers close, the street crucifies you – either way EDA as a sector has a problem.
The recent management at Cadence seemed to be operating under the assumption that their products were simply shrink-wrappable components that could be sold to anyone with the money to buy them. They also followed the standard product/stocking distributor/retailer premise that new products are at a premium and you heavily discount to clear old products from inventory. Unfortunately, EDA is a long life cycle business where the maintenance and service revenue from these older products (i.e. simulation tools, custom design, pcb) account for significant portions of the base revenue stream. These sort of decisions are being made by multiple companies who still believe that EDA is a valid standalone sector. The reality is that the EDA biz unit came from the electronics supply chain for a full system product life cycle program, and that breakout of “component design creation” as a parallel sector is reaching maturity and the interaction/integration of the tools, planning and manufacturing has to be re-integrated into the product cycle.
So where are we – you have a couple of big boats in the water, without a destination for where they are headed, one does not even have anyone steering the ship. You have a couple of big boats staying in the middle of the river, heading slowiy upstream and betting that things are better there, but being careful to not crash the boat. The rest of the private guys are just blinding following in the wakes of these boats, hoping to be acquired and brought on board, even getting on board with the directionless boats. It would seem, the best bet is it to stop the drifting, nuke the directionaless boats and send the people out on life rafts to new industries, and redirect the two good boats to the semiconductor component and equipment channels where there is at least a positive TAM still available.
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