Koby’s Kaos

Received a guest blog by Lauro Rizzatti  of EVE-USA that reminded me that we are always citizens of a larger reality, and that sometimes our interest in and application of practical science can serve the larger community.  (Besides, where else do MarCom managers perform heroic acts?) But I’ll let Lauro tell the story.

“This Post Could Save a Life”

By Lauro Rizzatti, GM,  EVE-USA, lauro@eve-team.com

“This blog post could save a life.  It’s a harrowing story about EVE’s beloved marketing communications manager Cindy Wilson, her husband Dave and their son.

In the early hours of December 29 –– Cindy’s birthday, as a matter of fact –– Dave sat up in bed gasping for air.  He climbed out of bed, took a few steps and collapsed.  He was in full cardiac arrest.

Cindy, who woke up when she heard Dave gasping for breath, leaped into action.  She dialed 911 and began CPR, all-the-while talking to the dispatcher.  Meanwhile, their teenage son opened the garage door and kept a lookout for the EMTs.  Twelve minutes and every CPR move imaginable later, help arrived.  The EMTs used their portable defibrillator on Dave four times, not the normal three, to get his heart going again.

Dave got to Sutter Tracy Community Hospital in record time and spent two days being stabilized before being transferred to Dameron Hospital in Stockton, Calif., an affiliate of Kaiser Permanante, California’s largest HMO.  He was there for three days before moving to Kaiser Permanante’s facility in San Francisco for another three days.  Cindy said he received excellent, top-notch care at all of these hospitals over the 10-day period.

Two months later, he is recovering nicely, after his doctors implanted in his chest a pacemaker undoubtedly designed with the help of EDA tools.

You may be wondering what caused a heart attack on a seemingly healthy 40-year old.  Well, he recently lost weight, looked and felt great.  He wanted to keep it off and, instead of snacking, fortified himself with energy drinks, something many dieters do to keep the calorie count low, but still get an energy boost.

Unfortunately, energy drinks, with high doses of caffeine, have been found to deplete potassium in a person’s system, causing heart failure and that’s exactly what happened to Dave.  When he got to the hospital, he had no potassium in his system.  It took two days to replenish it.

Cindy agreed to let me blog about this very personal and frightening story because she passionately believes that we consumers need to be educated on the health hazards of energy drinks.  According to recent articles, some of the ingredients are understudied and not regulated.  These articles have warned that energy drinks could be harmful to children, but adults need to be careful as well.

If you’re at DVCon this week, please stop by the EVE booth (#503) to meet Cindy and give her kudos for her bravery and courage.  Thanks to Cindy’s CPR skills, training she took through a program offered at the EVE U.S.A. Corporate Headquarters in San Jose, she saved her husband’s life.

And, the next time you’re tempted by an energy drink, you might consider a banana instead.  Bananas are a rich source of potassium and delicious, too.”

Okay, I used to be certified in CPR. I’m not now. You probably aren’t either. But the next time you pass around a new technology in the market place, even if it’s just an “energy” drink, you may want to sign up for a quick renewal class.  Now go out there and tell the team about that cost overrun with the confidence you can handle at least one possible reaction ….

Warning: Staying Focused Can Be Harmful to Your Results

Quick. Get a designated driver to finish reading this. It’s all spoilers from here on. Meanwhile, I’ll keep stalling.

There’s a study, first done at Harvard in 1998, where participants watch a video of two teams passing around basketballs. The viewers are asked to count the number of times one of the teams passes the ball. It is a test of visual acuity, attention to detail, and the ability to ignore distractions.

It is also a test of magic and marks, of inattentional blindness, and a reminder that Murphy never sleeps.

Time to show your friends the “Selective Attention Test”

Follow the directions.

Keep playing the video.

How did they do? Odds are 50% were watching the wrong video. In effect, it can be easier to find the needle in the haystack than the gorilla holding it.

Murphy Rules

The problem in testing this phenomenon is that once you know what’s going to happen, you see it. You also skew your results. The video is a simple test of the misdirection that most magic illusions depend on. People like me, for example, are natural marks. I have “One Born Every Minute” stamped on my forehead. I believe, basically, everyone. It’s actually not a bad survival tool—but you have to pick your jungle very carefully.

In a broad generalization, the more focused we are, the more likely we are to fall for it.

Which actually makes it a major problem in focused professions, you know, the ones we depend on.

In the Widipedia article on “Inattentional blindness” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_gorilla), the tribal author refers to a NASA flight simulator experiment that tested whether commercial pilots would see distractions on a runway during landings. While untrained pilots did not know what to expect and saw the distraction, a quarter of the trained pilots landed on top of the distraction.

(My personal experience includes a United Airlines crash in December 1978 when the cockpit crew focused so completely on a landing gear problem that we ran out of fuel and crashed anyway a few miles from the Portland, Oregon, airport. And yes, the landing gear had locked correctly, it was the sensor that broke.)

Since you already know about the primate, you can try the other tests on http://www.theinvisiblegorilla.com/videos.html. You see, in even knowing the solution, we create another one.

But Does She Rule Wisely?

Daniel Simons, the psychologist who studies this now at the University of Illinois (my alma mater), also talks about “Satisfaction of Search.” But if I explained that now, you’d need to designate another driver.

Let’s just say that once you have spotted that gorilla holding the needle, it’s time to look for the elephant he’s standing on.

Evidence is hard. But repeatable evidence is even harder— to obtain at least. Every engineer (we’ll call her Ms. Murphy) is familiar, in fact if not in name, to the idea that you can’t step into the same river twice—that “same” river has already flowed past and you’re dealing with a new batch of river every time you try. Every manager is familiar to the phenomenon that he or she has to pin Ms. Murphy to a fact-based river forecast anyway—too much money is at stake to be cute about it. The investors won’t respond well to a genial shrug at the next board meeting.

Basing billion dollar decisions on the evidence of social science is even harder, more necessary, and more misleading. At a recent Linus Pauling Memorial Lecture (Mentor Graphics being a major sponsor and inviting me along), Dr. Nancy Cartwright of the London School of Economics and UC San Diego applauded the movement to establish evidence-based public policy, but exposed where blind faith that its tools, such as Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs), provide necessary and sufficient proof (guaranteeing results) can lead us into expensive, demoralizing failures.

Think about Rube Goldberg devices (if you’re too young, then use the web already and check them out). Basically a definable action leads to a desirable result. But if you walk away and try the same definable action somewhere else and don’t carry the exact same “in-between” with you, results will more than vary.

In between the cause and effect of a Rube Goldberg device is an incredible, and funny, chain of bizarre yet plausible principles and events. If you simply cover up that messy part, you can think you have found Nirvana—as long as you never try to repeat it.

But whether it’s health care, class size, educational reforms, or helmet laws, that’s what we keep trying. We have to do something, and it’s too expensive to try the Wrong Thing.

(I can’t do Dr. Cartwright’s talk justice in this brief look. It was very challenging and occasionally had me whimpering under my seat. Terry’s Takes, http://www.isepp.org/Pages/10-11%20Pages/TerrysTakePage2.html, is an alternative explanation video blog by the director of the Institute for Science, Engineering and Public Policy, http://www.isepp.org/index.html, which organizes these lectures. Dr. Cartwright has written books and many articles. I’m told her first book is the most accessible.)

But back to Health Care, or Helmet Laws, or Educational Initiatives. We have to do something! Every other talk show host starts with “It’s really simple, people.” But Dr. Cartwright stressed doing our homework, and lots of it. RCT’s are a laudable attempt to provide “what’s” without resorting to “how’s” and “why’s.” But if we don’t examine how and why that particular Rube Goldberg action produced that result IN THAT CASE, we are still rushing blindly when we apply that action again.

It’s almost like we’re back to doing a “gut” feeling approach. Because we are. We always are. So own up to it, and integrate the evidence with the brain’s ability to make connections we aren’t terribly aware of. Go to the original site. Go to the target site. What’s different? What tastes the same? Get on the ground. Experience the environment. Take a bunch of people, poll for impressions and cautions.

Then go small. Bet on pilot studies. Expand the evidence base. See if there isn’t a huge chaos between the two cliffs just waiting for your blind leap. Build the bridge. Play the odds. Bet smart. Keep your mistakes manageable and learn from them.

Easy for me to say. It’s just up to you and your two buddies, Rube and Ms. Murphy to make happen. Remember, I’ll be right there behind you, second-guessing you every step of the way (grin, I hope).