Chip Numbers Show Growth But Support Slowdown
There is certainly no shortage of bad news for chip makers in this month’s headlines: Chip Makers Take Hits From Demand Slowdown. But what about our forward looking numbers for new chip investigations? These investigations serve as a precursor for actual chip starts so are a critical measure of future chip growth.
The news is mixed, as you can see from the chart. For the end of Oct08, more companies were investigating chip architectures for projects that might start in the next 3 to 6 months. That’s good news. Unfortunately, the rolling average – an indicator of future trends – has taken a downward projection. This suggests that Nov08 will see a decline in new chip investigations and hence a tendency to decrease design starts in the following 3 to 6 month. I will continue to tract this indicator closely in the coming months. (I will not have Nov08 numbers until mid-Dec.)
For geographic trends, please see Ed Sperling’s recent analysis: Exclusive Research: Industry Hot And Cold Spots